Things are looking pretty rough if this is what they’re running

By now many of you have undoubtedly seen this ad:

Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) attacks Kay Barnes, accusing her of supporting “San Francisco-style values”

Now, I am not a political scientist, but I can think of several reasons why this ad bodes very, very, very poorly for Rep. Graves’s re-election campaign.

1. The ad talks about all of Kay Barnes’s fundraisers while showing people dancing, toasting with champagne, laughing, and generally enjoying life. The voiceover then goes on to talk about how those are not “our values”. I’ll admit, this is weak, but does that mean that Sam Graves is opposed to dancing and champagne and laughter?
2. The ad stays far, far, far away from Kay Barnes’s record as mayor of Kansas City. Why? If Barnes had no record, he could spend his time talking about her inexperience; if she was corrupt, he could go on about that; if she was ineffective, then he could talk about that. Instead, he has to resort to “she’s friends with Nancy Pelosi!”.
3. The ad stays even further away from Sam Graves’s record in Congress; it never even mentions that Rep. Graves is the incumbent in this race. Additionally, the ad appears to be geared at the rural sections of the district (in the northwestern corner of Missouri), especially with all that talk of “our values” and “big city mayor”. So, to my line of thinking, Sam Graves would rather rural Missourians think about hot gay sex than about his record on the war, the economy, Social Security, health care, education, or any of those other, lesser, issues.
4. And finally, my favorite… It’s May. Kay Barnes is still facing a primary in August; assuming she wins, the general election is in November (six months away). And Sam Graves is already going negative. Normally, we don’t see general-election attack ads until late September or early October, when candidates start getting really concerned about how well their opponents come across (or when their respective opponents have just attacked them). If Sam Graves is that concerned about Kay Barnes this early in the race, then it’s going to be a looooooong road to November for him.

I’m quite pleased to report that Kay Barnes’s campaign has responded well. (Love that tone, too. “Seriously? That’s the best you can do?”)

FWIW, Graves’s record is all here and here. Links will take you further back in his record.

You can also see where each candidate is getting campaign funding. I strongly suggest you look up Rep. Graves’s committee assignments after you see which industries are giving him the most money.