By now many of you have undoubtedly seen this ad:

Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) attacks Kay Barnes, accusing her of supporting “San Francisco-style values”

Now, I am not a political scientist, but I can think of several reasons why this ad bodes very, very, very poorly for Rep. Graves’s re-election campaign.

1. The ad talks about all of Kay Barnes’s fundraisers while showing people dancing, toasting with champagne, laughing, and generally enjoying life. The voiceover then goes on to talk about how those are not “our values”. I’ll admit, this is weak, but does that mean that Sam Graves is opposed to dancing and champagne and laughter?
2. The ad stays far, far, far away from Kay Barnes’s record as mayor of Kansas City. Why? If Barnes had no record, he could spend his time talking about her inexperience; if she was corrupt, he could go on about that; if she was ineffective, then he could talk about that. Instead, he has to resort to “she’s friends with Nancy Pelosi!”.
3. The ad stays even further away from Sam Graves’s record in Congress; it never even mentions that Rep. Graves is the incumbent in this race. Additionally, the ad appears to be geared at the rural sections of the district (in the northwestern corner of Missouri), especially with all that talk of “our values” and “big city mayor”. So, to my line of thinking, Sam Graves would rather rural Missourians think about hot gay sex than about his record on the war, the economy, Social Security, health care, education, or any of those other, lesser, issues.
4. And finally, my favorite… It’s May. Kay Barnes is still facing a primary in August; assuming she wins, the general election is in November (six months away). And Sam Graves is already going negative. Normally, we don’t see general-election attack ads until late September or early October, when candidates start getting really concerned about how well their opponents come across (or when their respective opponents have just attacked them). If Sam Graves is that concerned about Kay Barnes this early in the race, then it’s going to be a looooooong road to November for him.

I’m quite pleased to report that Kay Barnes’s campaign has responded well. (Love that tone, too. “Seriously? That’s the best you can do?”)

FWIW, Graves’s record is all here and here. Links will take you further back in his record.

You can also see where each candidate is getting campaign funding. I strongly suggest you look up Rep. Graves’s committee assignments after you see which industries are giving him the most money.

USA Today just published results of a poll showing widespread opposition to government regulation of same-sex marriages. 63% of respondents in this poll called same-sex marriage a “private decision”, and only 33% think the government should be able to pass laws against same-sex marriage. This majority holds in all age groups except 65+ (and even then, the 3% margin of error brings it to an even split); it holds in every region; it holds in every income level.

Unsurprisingly, a majority of Republicans, self-identified conservatives, and regular churchgoers still think the government has a right to pass laws prohibiting same-sex marriage. What’s surprising to me, though, is that this majority is not what it once was: 56% each among Republicans and those who attend weekly church services, and only 54% among conservatives.

What is even more surprising: 4% think the government should be able to pass laws prohibiting interracial marriages, and 2% think the government should be able to prevent interreligious marriages. Seriously? Interreligious marriages are one of the reasons (heterosexual) couples can get hitched at the courthouse: your church may say no, but as long as you meet the other criteria the government doesn’t care if you’re Catholic and your beloved is Protestant.

The Advocate published a wee blog post about some NBC exit poll data that specifically asked GLBT voters how they voted in the Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday. That poll indicates that Clinton has notably stronger support among GLBT voters…

… but only among those in New York or California.

I can only imagine two scenarios where this methodology would be valid:

1. Only two states — New York and California — caucused or held primaries on Super Tuesday
2. GLBT voters only live in two states, New York and California; they simply do not exist elsewhere

However, neither of these scenarios are true; GLBT voters did vote on Super Tuesday in twenty-one other states. Therefore, I can’t help but conclude that the pollsters made one or more of the following hasty and demonstrably false generalizations:

1. GLBT voters in other states would have been deathly afraid to self-identify in an exit poll
2. All GLBT voters have the same mindset; there is absolutely no difference of opinion between, say, a Chelsea muscleboy and a fiercely independent lesbian in rural Oklahoma, so sampling exclusively in NY and CA is enough
3. Gays, lesbians, bisexuals, and transfolk do not bother voting, except in NY and CA
4. GLBT voters elsewhere have not changed their minds one whit since Hunter College’s poll was released last fall
5. The “favorite daughter” effect had precisely zero effect on GLBT voters in New York state, therefore the “favorite son” effect clearly had precisely zero effect on GLBT voters in Illinois

Whatever the real cause, it’s pretty clear that the pollsters did not do a very good job of taking a representative sample of GLBT voter opinions. As a result, the results they do have should not be considered indicative of GLBT voter opinions elsewhere, and anybody who assumes that they are is either intellectually lazy or deliberately ignorant.

Not much to say tonight. Now that the tooth is no longer inflamed, we can do the holidayish stuff that we had skipped a week and a half ago. This includes shopping, which is actually better right after Christmas IMHO (lower prices, lower incidence of drama).

We’re staying in tonight. The bubbly is chilling in the fridge, and tomorrow’s breakfast (pain au chocolat) is about to start proofing (it needs nine hours). As long as the weather holds, the in-laws are coming over for a belated Yule, with an extra-special dinner ingredient (we may be exchanging gifts, but it’s still New Year’s Day). Since said in-laws don’t care for the taste of black-eyed peas, we’ll be making a chicken spezzatino but with black-eyed peas in place of the usual kidney or cannellini beans.

Met up with bastique and his beloved last night as they passed through. (they’re moving from St. Petersburg to San Francisco, and driving the whooooole way.) Couldn’t stay long — they were trying to overnight in KC, and it was early-dinner-hour when they arrived in STL — but it was nice to actually put a physical presence to the username. (Plus, I got a stack of Wikipedia stickers.)

Crunching kernel on the “bronze” Powerbook G3 I mentioned here earlier. Yup, I got it free, with an AC adapter and second battery to boot. It needs a name, and unfortunately the one that keeps coming to mind is “rupaul”. (Word heard often today was “super” and in researching specs I kept seeing “model”; in installing Portage I had to go for a “snapshot”; lots of going “back to my root[s]” [partition]; and, of course, the translucent keyboard is quite fierce.) Perhaps I should figure out where this laptop’s booty is and put a star on it…

Time for me to stop blogging and gear up for the stroke of midnight and the onset of another election year. Remember: no matter what happens in the days to come, the long arc of history swings upward. (it’s just sometimes too long for us to see its true direction.)

Where to start…

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Had the chorus show. It turned out a hell of a lot better than I expected — apparently a lot of guys had been cramming lyrics ‘n’ tunes all day both Friday and Saturday — and the audience was very responsive. The snowstorm kept a lot of people home on Saturday night, though.

We won’t be able to sing with the full chorus for the next show, though we may be able to go with the smaller ensemble. The same interim director will be conducting, though, which should help stabilize a few things.

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Nigel had a flat on the way home from the chorus dress rehearsal! We managed to make it home (it was very late, the streets were slick with rain, and we were very close anyway) and got him in his usual spot that night. Then it snowed 8 inches or so, and things were unpleasant enough that we delayed changing the tire even further. When we finally got to it, we discovered that the tire had multiple large-ish breaches and would therefore need to be completely replaced. At this point, between shop closures and year-end financial obligations, Nigel is going to have to wait at least another week before he gets a new tire. It continues to make me sad.

In the meantime, I’ve been getting rides from Fred or taking the bus or train to work. I haven’t done that regularly since the pre-Nigel days, and I have to admit I sort of missed it a tiny little bit. If I catch the right bus, it takes roughly the same amount of time to get to work; it gives me a chance to unwind afterwards without having to deal with too many idiot drivers; and the University sprang for a Metro pass for me, so the bus/train doesn’t cost me anything. Finally, running for a bus is wonderful exercise — I get lots of cardio, and my motivation is built right in — and at this time of year a morning jog is invigorating.

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As of the day of the chorus’s opening night, though, Fred drives a slick 1997 BMW, in gorgeous condition, with purple leather seats. (It’s a very dark purple, such that it appears black except in direct sunlight.) This is not the first car we were eager to buy, but in retrospect it’s better that we got this one instead: it’s cheaper, it’s in better shape, and unlike the first one that was too insulated for my tastes this one lets the driver feel enough of the road to respond accordingly. As we discovered the night of that snowstorm, though, the new car (named “Klaus”) has rear-wheel drive, and though it does beautifully on virgin snow, when it hits ice it fishtails rather nastily until somebody sits in back.

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Said snowstorm was more wind and fury than actual precipitation. That said, we still got 8 inches. (Actual inches, not gay.com inches. cue that rimshot.) Most fell Saturday evening during the chorus show, so while the roads were so-so on the way to the theater, they were atrocious on the way home. (This is mostly because the city didn’t plow anything until Sunday morning.) The extra-sucky part about our trip home from the theater was that all of our available routes involved some combination of bridges and long uphill grades, which are rough going in any sort of wheeled vehicle. We insisted that Fred’s mother stay the night

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Had finals in both classes, and nailed ‘em both. I kinda sorta broke the curve in the programming class (101%, sorry). Didn’t do quite that well in physio, but I won’t complain about that. (Physio was one of those “lecture four hours straight” sorts of classes, which I actually enjoy in a perverse way. It’s the virtual labs that made me groan in disgust.)

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The departmental holiday party was the night of the programming final, so I didn’t get to stick around. The food looked amazing, though I couldn’t eat much of it (time was short, also the tooth was starting to flare up), and it was refreshing to see everybody there with their spouses and partners et al. and kids. The music was a little interesting, though; one of the postdocs from the dept chair’s lab (who bears a striking resemblance to Justin Timberlake, no fooling) and another postdoc who had once been in our department sang and played guitar. Apparently they switched to karaoke later on, once the booze kicked in, but I’m not sure how I feel about that. Great moment, though, was attempting to explain the Violent Femmes’ “Blister in the Sun” — WHICH THEY ACTUALLY PLAYED AT THE DEPARTMENT HOLIDAY PARTY, this obviously still blows my mind — to those unfamiliar with that song.

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You know about last Wednesday. Swollen cheek, broken tooth, new gay dentist, etc. Been on those meds ever since, and though the antibiotic occasionally gives me a headache (especially in the presence of fly food) I haven’t had any further problems. I can chew again, which is a relief even if I do have to go easy on the left side of my mouth.

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Thanks to the dental condition, we postponed holiday observations until at least after the New Year. Don’t ask me what I got, because I really don’t know yet. We spent both the Solstice weekend and Christmas Day at home, putzing around and watching “Labyrinth“, “Elf“, episodes from season 2.0 of “Battlestar Galactica“, and snippets of “A Christmas Story“. (No vacation time for me yet, so I had to work on Christmas Eve. I did cut out a bit early, though, because nobody was there.)

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Food and geekery posts to follow.